Operation Vanguard Weapon Case: Price, Skins & Odds

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Standard Not painted prices by marketplace
Marketplace	Listings	Lowest ask	Fee	You pay	Marketplace link
Steam MarketOfficialInstant · Steam wallet · Updated 3 h ago	3,313	—	0%	—	View

What's in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?

The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case contains 14 skins: two Covert, three Classified, four Restricted and five Mil-Spec. It also contains 65 rare special knives: the Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit and M9 Bayonet. Every skin can also drop as StatTrak™.

Covert · 2

0.64% per opening for the tier, about 0.32% for each skin

AK-47

Wasteland Rebel

from $78.33

0.32% · 1 in 313

P2000

Fire Elemental

from $76.83

0.32% · 1 in 313

Classified · 3

3.20% per opening for the tier, about 1.0667% for each skin

P250

Cartel

from $8.89

1.0667% · 1 in 94

XM1014

Tranquility

from $7.86

1.0667% · 1 in 94

SCAR-20

Cardiac

from $7.26

1.0667% · 1 in 94

Restricted · 4

15.98% per opening for the tier, about 3.995% for each skin

M4A1-S

Basilisk

from $6.91

3.995% · 1 in 25

M4A4

Griffin

from $2.54

3.995% · 1 in 25

Sawed-Off

Highwayman

from $1.25

3.995% · 1 in 25

Glock-18

Grinder

No live listing

3.995% · 1 in 25

Mil-Spec · 5

79.92% per opening for the tier, about 15.984% for each skin

Five-SeveN

Urban Hazard

from $2.19

15.984% · 1 in 6

MAG-7

Firestarter

from $0.63

15.984% · 1 in 6

UMP-45

Delusion

from $0.57

15.984% · 1 in 6

G3SG1

Murky

from $0.54

15.984% · 1 in 6

MP9

Dart

from $0.54

15.984% · 1 in 6

These skins form The Vanguard Collection.

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case knives

The case drops five knife types, each in 13 finishes, for 65 possible knives. The cheapest is a Gut Knife | Safari Mesh at $40.95, and the top listing is a M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web.

13 finishes

Bayonet

from $110.82

About 1 in 1,923 openings

13 finishes

Flip Knife

from $90.86

About 1 in 1,923 openings

13 finishes

Gut Knife

from $40.95

About 1 in 1,923 openings

13 finishes

Karambit

from $332.00

About 1 in 1,923 openings

13 finishes

M9 Bayonet

from $242.11

About 1 in 1,923 openings

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case odds

Every opening gives a Mil-Spec skin 79.92% of the time, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a knife 0.26%. So the AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel drops in about 1 in 313 openings and any single knife type in about 1 in 1,923.

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case odds by rarity, with per-item odds and the cheapest item in each tier
Rarity	Tier odds	Items in tier	Odds per item	1 in	Cheapest in tier
Mil-Spec	79.92%	5	15.984%	6	$0.54
Restricted	15.98%	4	3.995%	25	$1.25
Classified	3.20%	3	1.0667%	94	$7.26
Covert	0.64%	2	0.32%	313	$76.83
★ Knife	0.26%	65	0.004%	25,000	$40.95

Tier odds are Valve's published rates. Odds per item assume equal weighting within a tier, which Valve hasn't confirmed. 1 in 10 drops is StatTrak™.

About the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case is a weapon case released in November 2014, with 14 skins and 65 rare special knives. Opening it needs a $2.49 key from the in-game store.

Its skins form The Vanguard Collection. Trade-ups within that collection stay inside these 14 skins and, since 2025, can reach its knives.

Current CS2 drop pool ›

Released: November 2014
Skins: 14
Knives: 65
Key needed: Yes
StatTrak™: Yes
Weekly drop pool: No

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case questions

Can you still get the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case from weekly drops?

No. It is out of the weekly drop pool, so the only way to get one now is to buy it from another player or a marketplace.

What is the rarest item in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?

Knives are the rarest drop, at 0.26% for any of the 65. Within those, rarity comes from finish and pattern: a M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web is the most valuable thing it can produce right now.

Why is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case so expensive?

It no longer drops, so no new copies enter the market while players keep opening the ones that exist, and its rare special slot includes the Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife.

Can you trade up to an Operation Vanguard Weapon Case knife?

Yes. Covert skins from The Vanguard Collection can be traded up into one of the case's 65 knives, chosen at random.

Do Operation Vanguard Weapon skins come in StatTrak™?

Yes. Every skin and knife in the case can drop as StatTrak™, about 1 in 10 drops. Souvenirs are not case drops; eligible guns can also exist as Souvenir-O-Matic conversions.

Prices refresh automatically from each marketplace · Item facts from the CS2 game files

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case