Operation Wildfire Case: Price, Skins & Odds

Operation Wildfire Case Standard Not painted prices by marketplace
Marketplace	Listings	Lowest ask	Fee	You pay	Marketplace link
Steam MarketOfficialInstant · Steam wallet · Updated 40 min ago	10,569	—	0%	—	View

What's in the Operation Wildfire Case?

The Operation Wildfire Case contains 16 skins: two Covert, three Classified, five Restricted and six Mil-Spec. It also contains 13 rare special knives: the Bowie Knife. Every skin can also drop as StatTrak™.

Covert · 2

0.64% per opening for the tier, about 0.32% for each skin

AK-47

Fuel Injector

from $91.22

0.32% · 1 in 313

M4A4

The Battlestar

from $26.90

0.32% · 1 in 313

Classified · 3

3.20% per opening for the tier, about 1.0667% for each skin

Desert Eagle

Kumicho Dragon

from $15.56

1.0667% · 1 in 94

Nova

Hyper Beast

from $9.29

1.0667% · 1 in 94

AWP

Elite Build

from $8.99

1.0667% · 1 in 94

Restricted · 5

15.98% per opening for the tier, about 3.196% for each skin

FAMAS

Valence

from $2.40

3.196% · 1 in 31

MP7

Impire

from $2.10

3.196% · 1 in 31

Glock-18

Royal Legion

from $1.68

3.196% · 1 in 31

MAG-7

Praetorian

from $1.60

3.196% · 1 in 31

Five-SeveN

Triumvirate

from $1.45

3.196% · 1 in 31

Mil-Spec · 6

79.92% per opening for the tier, about 13.32% for each skin

MAC-10

Lapis Gator

from $0.65

13.32% · 1 in 8

USP-S

Lead Conduit

from $0.57

13.32% · 1 in 8

PP-Bizon

Photic Zone

from $0.41

13.32% · 1 in 8

Dual Berettas

Cartel

from $0.37

13.32% · 1 in 8

SSG 08

Necropos

from $0.36

13.32% · 1 in 8

Tec-9

Jambiya

from $0.34

13.32% · 1 in 8

These skins form The Wildfire Collection.

Operation Wildfire Case knives

The case drops one knife type, each in 13 finishes, for 13 possible knives. The cheapest is a Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh at $45.17, and the top listing is a Bowie Knife | Blue Steel.

13 finishes

Bowie Knife

from $45.17

About 1 in 385 openings

Operation Wildfire Case odds

Every opening gives a Mil-Spec skin 79.92% of the time, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a knife 0.26%. So the AK-47 | Fuel Injector drops in about 1 in 313 openings and any single knife type in about 1 in 385.

Operation Wildfire Case odds by rarity, with per-item odds and the cheapest item in each tier
Rarity	Tier odds	Items in tier	Odds per item	1 in	Cheapest in tier
Mil-Spec	79.92%	6	13.32%	8	$0.34
Restricted	15.98%	5	3.196%	31	$1.45
Classified	3.20%	3	1.0667%	94	$8.99
Covert	0.64%	2	0.32%	313	$26.90
★ Knife	0.26%	13	0.02%	5,000	$45.17

Tier odds are Valve's published rates. Odds per item assume equal weighting within a tier, which Valve hasn't confirmed. 1 in 10 drops is StatTrak™.

About the Operation Wildfire Case

The Operation Wildfire Case is a weapon case released in February 2016, with 16 skins and 13 rare special knives. Opening it needs a $2.49 key from the in-game store.

Its skins form The Wildfire Collection. Trade-ups within that collection stay inside these 16 skins and, since 2025, can reach its knives.

Current CS2 drop pool ›

Released: February 2016
Skins: 16
Knives: 13
Key needed: Yes
StatTrak™: Yes
Weekly drop pool: No

Operation Wildfire Case questions

Can you still get the Operation Wildfire Case from weekly drops?

No. It is out of the weekly drop pool, so the only way to get one now is to buy it from another player or a marketplace.

What is the rarest item in the Operation Wildfire Case?

Knives are the rarest drop, at 0.26% for any of the 13. Within those, rarity comes from finish and pattern: a Bowie Knife | Blue Steel is the most valuable thing it can produce right now.

Why is the Operation Wildfire Case so expensive?

It no longer drops, so no new copies enter the market while players keep opening the ones that exist, and its rare special slot includes the Bowie Knife.

Can you trade up to an Operation Wildfire Case knife?

Yes. Covert skins from The Wildfire Collection can be traded up into one of the case's 13 knives, chosen at random.

Do Operation Wildfire skins come in StatTrak™?

Yes. Every skin and knife in the case can drop as StatTrak™, about 1 in 10 drops. Souvenirs are not case drops; eligible guns can also exist as Souvenir-O-Matic conversions.

Prices refresh automatically from each marketplace · Item facts from the CS2 game files

Operation Wildfire Case