Counter-Strike 2
Valorant
Dota 2
League of Legends
Chances of getting a knife from the Horizon Case
Any knife drops in 0.26% of openings, about 1 in 385. A specific knife type, like the Navaja Knife, is about 1 in 1,538, and one exact knife and finish, like a Navaja Knife | Blue Steel, is about 1 in 20,000.
| Outcome | Per opening | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Any knife | 0.26% | 385 |
| One knife type | 0.065% | 1,538 |
| One exact knife and finish | 0.005% | 20,000 |
| A StatTrak™ copy of one exact knife | 0.0005% | 200,000 |
The 0.26% is Valve's published rate. Per-type and per-knife odds assume every rare special item is equally likely, which Valve hasn't confirmed.
Most valuable Horizon Case knives
The most valuable knife in the case is a Factory New Talon Knife | Crimson Web, followed by a Factory New Talon Knife | Case Hardened.
| # | Knife | Exterior | Lowest total | Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talon Knife | Crimson Web | Factory New | $3,234 | 1 |
| 2 | Talon Knife | Case Hardened | Factory New | $984.44 | 18 |
| 3 | Talon Knife | Fade | Minimal Wear | $829.42 | 23 |
| 4 | Talon Knife | Night Stripe | Factory New | $816.83 | 1 |
| 5 | Talon Knife | Slaughter | Factory New | $604.88 | 80 |
| 6 | Talon Knife | Blue Steel | Factory New | $579.49 | 19 |
What is a Horizon Case knife worth on average?
The average knife from this case is worth about $258.24 at today's prices. A few valuable finishes carry that average, so the median knife is worth much less, around $181.12.
Average
$258.24
Median
$181.12
Cheapest
$36.82
Most valuable
$3,234
Each knife's value weights its exteriors by float range and StatTrak™ by its 1-in-10 chance; phase finishes count at their cheapest phase. The case page puts this into the expected value of opening it.
Other cases with the same knives
The Danger Zone Case has exactly the same 52 knives. The Prisma Case and Prisma 2 Case have the same four knife types in Chroma finishes.
| Case | Shares | Finish set |
|---|---|---|
| Danger Zone Case | The same 52 knives | Mixed |
| Prisma Case | Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife and Ursus Knife | Chroma |
| Prisma 2 Case | Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife and Ursus Knife | Chroma |