M4A1-S | Nightmare float and wear
The M4A1-S | Nightmare's float runs from 0.00 to 1.00, which covers Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn and Battle-Scarred.
| Exterior | Float band | Exists for this skin | Its floats in band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.00 – 0.07 | Yes | 0.00 – 0.07 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.07 – 0.15 | Yes | 0.07 – 0.15 |
| Field-Tested | 0.15 – 0.38 | Yes | 0.15 – 0.38 |
| Well-Worn | 0.38 – 0.45 | Yes | 0.38 – 0.45 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.45 – 1.00 | Yes | 0.45 – 1.00 |
How to get the M4A1-S | Nightmare: case, odds and trade-ups
The M4A1-S | Nightmare drops from the Horizon Case with a 1.067% chance per opening, since it shares the case's 3.2% Classified odds with 2 other skins.
Per case opened
1.067%
About 1 in 94
StatTrak™ per case
0.1067%
About 1 in 937
Trade-up outcome
33.3%
1 in 3 from a Restricted trade-up
| Case | Weekly drop pool | Chance per opening | Case price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon Case | No longer drops | 1.067% · 1 in 94 | — |
Tier odds are Valve's published rates; odds per skin assume every skin in a tier is equally likely, which Valve hasn't confirmed.
Trade-up contract
10 × Restricted from The Horizon Collection1 of 3 Classifiedat 33.3% each
Output float = average input × (1.00 − 0.00) + 0.00
About the M4A1-S | Nightmare
The M4A1-S | Nightmare was added in August 2018, in The Horizon Collection. In CS2 it still uses the legacy weapon model.
“With a smaller magazine than its unmuffled counterpart, the silenced M4A1 provides quieter shots with less recoil and better accuracy. A custom paint job depicting a frightening nocturnal visitor has been applied.”
“Next time set an alarm”




